Posts tagged ‘probability of life in the multiverse’

April 17th, 2012

A New Drake Equation: The Probability of Life in the Multiverse

by Max Andrews

The Drake equation is advocated by SETI (Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) to show that the probability for ETI has a high probability (N).

N=N*×fp×ne×fl×fi×fc×fL

  • N* Number of stars in the Milky Way
  • fp Number of habitable planets in each system
  • ne number of planets that are Earth like
  • fl number of planets that emerge from inorganic matter or organic precursors
  • fi fraction of those planets on which intelligent beings also evolve
  • fc fraction of those planets on which sufficient communications technology arises
  • fL fraction of average planet lifetime

The problem with the equation is that each f is a number between 0 and 1, the product of the equation will be vastly lower than the total number of suitable stars in the galaxy N*.  Many variables are unknown.  So, the numbers that are brought in depend profoundly on the assumptions we bring into the problem.